COME RIDE WITH ME AND CHOOSE A PATH FORWARD
COME RIDE WITH ME AND CHOOSE A PATH FORWARD
DIVIDED AMERICA
Divided America is the much anticipated latest book by Author Geoffrey E. Hill:
Not since the Civil War has America been divided politically as it is now. The crucial question is whether such deep divisions can be managed so the states remain the United States. The two sides, left and right can either continue their battles for control of the government or both sides could find a way to accept the divisions and find a way to co-exist. It is the latter choice that is the subject of the book.
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Deep political and social differences in the United States have existed for a very long time. Slavery was at the root of most of the early differences that were found in two separate regions of the country. The need for cheap labor to support the cotton industry was at the heart of slavery.
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In Figure 1 the States and territories where slavery existed, or would have been permitted after 1854, are shown in red and those where slavery was not permitted are shown in blue. Please note that the offspring of the Confederacy in modern times is Republican, and therefore colored red. In Figure 2, the red States are those that voted Republican both in 2012 and in 2016, whereas the blue-colored States are those that voted Democratic in both elections. The States with off red or off blue are those that on average leaned Republican or Democratic, respectively.
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The purpose of these two figures being shown together is to recognize that although slavery ended more than 150 years ago, there remains an obvious pattern of division in the United States. It is a major goal of Political Outcomes to explore the various causes of these divisions and to find ways to overcome them.
During the Great Depression, economic conditions were so severe that unemployment rose to 25% at a time when only the father of a family had a job. Women rarely held positions except in certain fields such as teaching and nursing. Many new government agencies were established and new policies were put in place to deal with the emergency. Also, at that time there were no federal agencies to lend support to the unemployed or their families. Many of these agencies have remained to the present day. They have served to stabilize the functioning of society.
The South in particular became solidly Democratic partly as a result of Roosevelt’s Tennessee Valley Authority, TVA, which provided a large area of the country with electric power for the first time. The impact of this enormous improvement in the lives of millions was profound and long lasting. However, the end of this loyalty to the Democratic Party came with the election of Ronald Reagan. The Republican focus on "tax relief," religious values and advocacy of less government and State’s rights abruptly changed the South’s allegiance.
Since World War II, the political party in power changes about every eight years. Yet many individual states have remained predominantly aligned with one party. Those voters, sometimes Republican and sometimes Democrat suffer through the years of opposition. It is these “non-swing” states that are affected the most. They are apt to be the ones most opposed to the outcome. Fixing this condition generally receives little attention by the media or by political pundits. The attention needed will be detailed by this discourse.
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While conservatives are basking in their 2016 victories at all levels of government, liberals are intensively reviewing what to do for the next elections. Republicans either blocked or opposed nearly all of President Obama’s policies during his eight years. And it appears likely that the Democrats will do the same for President Trump. The Divide continues. As a whole, the last five presidential elections make it clear that the nation does not consist of a majority on one side and a minority on the other. The tally of voting is close to an even split.
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In the 2004 elections the Democrats’ extensive use of statistics about a laundry list of issues, debate victories and policies was not enough for them to win. An analyst commented, “We found ourselves living in a country where what was considered extreme just a decade ago was now national policy. How could this have happened?” In 2016 the result was more of the same. Many people would ask the same question in 2018.
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On the political right, the usual policies continue: tax relief, smaller government, fewer regulations, more corporate freedom, a stronger military and abortion restrictions. On the political left, their long-standing policies continue as well: support for an array of issues including economic matters, health care, education, social services, the environment and climate change. Implied in the liberal agenda are tax increases, more government and more regulations, (other than abortion), just the opposite of the Republican agenda.
These two political viewpoints have become increasingly firm with nearly the same public support year after year. It is as though there is a political dumbbell resting on a fulcrum ready to tilt dramatically one way or the other if given just a little net imbalance.
As evidenced by the 2016 Presidential election, a slight change in voting could have drastically changed the policies. A couple of percentage-points shift in voting in three of the so-called Rust Belt States would have made the difference. It is important to recognize that the two differing philosophies represented by the two major parties can switch back and forth with only a little net imbalance. It is questionable whether this political instability will sustain the nation.
There is widespread dissatisfaction with the outcome of the 2016 election as witnessed by the vocal demonstrations in both red and blue states. There remains a long-standing political divide that may have tilted further in one direction than usual. It is highly unlikely that the politics underlying the divide will go away in the face of fundamental differences that exist and have existed for decades.
While a small portion of what was considered “the South” may be shifting somewhat toward the Democrats, the majority of the central part of the country is firmly in the Republican sphere of influence. Yet with the election of Donald Trump, any shift in allegiance is questionable. What is not in question is that abrupt changes in national policies are to be expected in the existing political system.
The latest work from author Geoffrey E. Hill will be on shelves soon. Enter your information below to be alerted once this book is published.
