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This is what Korea could look like in the near future. Take a good look! And the result of nuclear fallout would be catastrophic in eastern Russia, China, South Korea, Japan and of course North Korea. 

 

Our solution to the North Korea problem involves China's cooperation while keeping in mind her long-term interests.​ We will appreciate your comments and ideas to implement our solution as described below. Please send us thoughtful feedback and please forward this proposal to friends and other contacts.

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Of course, there is a question as to whether President Trump has the capacity and stability to execute this plan. To be successful it would take very thoughtful action. Even if our plan is not followed, at the very least it makes clear that other options besides the military one are available.   

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This article was first posted here on Feb. 20, 2018. It was submitted to Politico a year ago with a favorable review, but not published. With the recent apparent change in attitude by both Presidents Trump and Kim Jong-un, there may be a pathway for de-escalation of tensions between the two countries. However, there is a significant chance that Trump and Kim Jong-un will continue sparring and jockeying for political as well as military advantage with no end in sight. Therefore, it is prudent to have available an alternative plan. It is spelled out here starting with relations as existed at the start of 2018.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has shown no limits with his actions and threats of nuclear-tipped missiles. Donald Trump’s threat of a massive nuclear response also has no limits. The confrontation has turned critical and is a serious threat to world peace. If nuclear bombs were launched by North Korea, the U.S., according to Trump, would retaliate with a massive strike. As the threat continues, Trump has even considered a first strike. But what good would that do? The only rational option is to avoid such an exchange of devastation. But how? 

 

The answer is Trade Taiwan for North Korea. Sounds Machiavellian? Maybe it is, but avoiding North Korean missiles with nuclear warheads takes precedence over political protocol. It’s not really a trade, because the U.S. doesn’t own or control Taiwan, but without over-powering U.S. military support Taiwan would soon belong to China.

 

To accomplish this "trade" the U.S. and China would come to an agreement wherein the United States sets the stage to re-integrate Taiwan with China, and China sets the stage to re-incorporate North Korea into South Korea, similar to East Germany’s re-unification with West Germany.

 

For China’s part, they would help make Kim Jong-un’s leadership ineffective and at the same time administer insurmountable military and economic pressure on North Korea to abandon its military power. Alternatively, Kim Jong Un could be offered safe haven along with a well-funded retirement. Simultaneously, the United States with China’s cooperation would make it known that the U.S. would buy out North Korea’s senior scientists and military officers along with their families with a pension they would not refuse. Such a program would require highly classified methods of communication and extensive participation of South Korean Intelligence services. As for their massive army, it could be dispersed with sufficient financial aid. For example, with 3 billion dollars per year, a stipend of $3,000 could be paid to one million soldiers for three to five years. With that support, the military could be retrained and integrated into useful activity.  

 

To ensure Korea would not become a threat to China, American military presence would be greatly reduced and the new Korean military would be largely curtailed above the 38th parallel. In addition, the new United Korea would completely abandon all nuclear military activity.

 

To avoid any undesired comparison between capitalism and the state-controlled economy of China, a buffer zone would be created along Korea’s northern border with China, perhaps 10 kilometers wide. No buildings or commercial development would take place in the zone. For another 20 kilometers there would be severe limits on the height of any construction.  The buffer zone would remain in place for 60 years.

 

As for Taiwan, the United States would curtail its military assistance in proportion to the progress made with regard to Korea. Although the U.S. officially ended its defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979, the U.S. continues to sell advanced weapons and has maintained a strong naval presence in the area. The Chinese regard the U.S. military presence around Taiwan much like the U.S. would view the presence of Chinese warships around Cuba.

 

The presence of U.S. aircraft carriers in the East China Sea, though arguably justified, is an insult and humiliation of the highest order. China’s humiliation is essentially the same as Japan’s after Commodore Perry confronted the Japanese in 1853-54. The long-term result was WWII. Events progress much faster in today’s world compared to a century and a half ago.

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According to Reuters (March 20, 2018) Chinese President Xi Jinping warned Taiwan of a renewed push for unification, vowing that efforts to resist this would face “the punishment of history.” Beijing regards the island, which has been self-ruled since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, as a breakaway province. Xi, recently emboldened by the removal of the two-term limit on his presidency, delivered a speech at the closing session of the National People’s Congress in Beijing, demanding a “peaceful reunification of the motherland.”

 

All military assistance to Taiwan would end the day Korean unification took place and the U.S. would recognize Taiwan as part of China. In the Taiwan agreement, China would treat Taiwan much like Hong Kong; in this case, for 60 years, the same period as the proposed border strip in northern Korea. Taiwan would have a special status that would be gradually phased out over the period. By that time, China would be far different, just as political and economic conditions now are vastly different from 1947 when the military opponents of Mao Tse-tung formed the present government of Taiwan.

 

In the process of enlisting China’s interest in trading North Korea for Taiwan, Americans should be aware that re-integration of Taiwan is already a major political goal for China. The Chinese are experiencing a rapid increase in national pride, while at the same time they are rapidly shedding their sense of weakness. Resentment is still strong among their leaders from the humiliation and dominance that existed for many decades especially by European colonial powers.  

 

Would China not be interested in making such a trade? Perhaps. They may well decide that they can handle the U.S. without such a deal. But the threat caused by Kim Jong-un provides good enough reason for China to act, especially if Taiwan is returned without a military conflict.

 

Would the United States electorate be an obstacle? Perhaps. There would be an outcry from some quarters that China should not be appeased and that Taiwan is part of the Western sphere of influence. On top of that, there is Eisenhower’s “military-industrial complex” to contend with. The industrial lobby for military contracts would have to be overcome. It would take strong and thoughtful leadership to make this happen.

 

While there remains a large majority in Taiwan that favor continuation of the status quo, there is a rapidly growing economic interdependence. Such cross-strait economic connections continually reinforce historic, cultural and ethnic characteristics of Taiwan and mainland China. If the special status was sweet enough and the re-integration of Taiwan into China was made gradually over a long period, it could be successful. It has to be successful for world peace.

 

For the past seventy years, prosperity, peace and well-being in Europe has been the result of American leadership immediately after WWII. Similar dramatic benefits can be expected in a united Korea just as in Germany after its re-unification. As for the Taiwanese, they will be relieved from the long and increasingly determined threat from mainland China.

 

The economic savings gained in the United States by not having massive defense budgets supporting both South Korea and Taiwan could be used for domestic purposes at home.  However, the greatest benefit of the exchange would certainly be the avoidance of nuclear war. People all over the world and especially in Korea and Taiwan would live in peace.